Why Disney World Crowds Could Surge in 2026!
There’s been extensive analysis about Walt Disney World attendance going down in 2026, resulting in lighter crowds at the parks and lower resort bookings as a result. While there are valid reasons to believe WDW might see a downturn next year, our assessment is the opposite: that increases at the hotels and theme parks are more likely.
Here’s a rundown of the reasons:
Current Trajectory is Good, Actually
Walt Disney World attendance being down 1%–the first decrease since the COVID closure–is attention-grabbing. However, it doesn’t tell the full story.
Disney had to navigate the opening of Epic Universe, and the parks overperformed during that period with stronger than anticipated bookings. Many fans were predicting the worst before Epic Universe opened, and if you told them that Walt Disney World would only drop 1% for the year, many would be surprised…or disappointed!
More surprising still would be the added nuance that the 1% decrease had absolutely nothing to do with Epic Universe. According to Disney’s CFO, the attendance decline could be explained entirely by the hurricane scares in the first quarter (meaning October 2024, the start of Disney’s 2025 fiscal year).
Disney directly addressed those hurricanes on multiple earnings calls over the last year, previously warning that Walt Disney World operating income would be adversely impacted by approximately $130 million due to storms. Hurricane Milton caused the parks to close and had a long tail of lower crowds due to cancellations in the days and weeks afterwards. We observed this in wait times data at the time, and in fact, crowd levels were up significantly year-over-year in October 2025.
Resort Occupancy is Up
Disney’s same 10-K filing that indicated domestic attendance was down also revealed that resort occupancy increased from 85% to 87% at Walt Disney World and Disneyland.
Meaning that even with attendance down 1%, Walt Disney World was able to shift stays from off-site to on-site. And they did so as Universal Orlando just opened 3 new resorts, and countless other hotels have debuted recently in Central Florida. There was a greater incentive to stay on-site at Universal Orlando–and many guests did exactly that–but Disney also improved. This further reinforces the ‘rising tides’ thesis, and that Epic Universe is growing the market to the benefit of both Universal and Disney.
This higher occupancy is likely directly attributable to better special offers. As noted above, Summer 2025 had the most aggressive discounts we’ve seen in a long time. Lower prices on resorts paired with higher occupancy resulted in higher per room guest spending, which is a rare win-win for Disney and guests.
That’s the added nuance to the above point about Walt Disney World making more money from a smaller pool of guests–more on-site hotel stays (a costly component to any trip), plus the aforementioned hurricane-induced closures and cancellations. Add in a dash of inflation, and there’s much less concern for the trajectory of attendance in 2026. To the contrary, it points to a potential bounce-back if Walt Disney World plays its cards right and lucks out with weather.
Record Tax Returns
This is the big one from our perspective. When taxpayers file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, a majority will see larger refunds than in recent years, per an analysis by the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy. That’s due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reduced individual income taxes for 2025 by an estimated $144 billion.
The new law included several retroactive tax changes for 2025, including a bigger standard deduction; more generous maximum child tax credit; a higher limit for the state and local tax deduction; a $6,000 tax break for seniors; and deductions for auto loan interest, tip income and overtime pay. These seven provisions are the key drivers in reducing income taxes.
Despite this applying retroactively, the IRS did not adjust withholding tables, which offer guidelines to employers on how much to take from worker paychecks. This means that most employees continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than the OBBBA required. As a result, instead of gradually receiving the benefit of the tax cuts throughout the year via higher take-home pay, most taxpayers will receive a lump-sum ‘windfall’ when filing their returns.
In an investor note titled, “The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge,” JPMorgan Asset Management reinforced the above analysis, while adding its own color commentary: “These higher income tax refunds should work much like a new round of stimulus checks, adding to consumer demand and inflation pressures early next year.”
JPMorgan called this a prospective “economic sugar rush” from record refunds. Further driving home that point, their analysis added the following “these refunds are sugar, not protein, and when their effects fade, it is quite possible that Washington will provide yet another round of stimulus to boost demand ahead of the mid-term elections.”
As a Disney blog, we aren’t here to debate the economic merits of the OBBBA or further stimulus. But it would be foolish to ignore this in a conversation about Disney crowds, since we’ve been down this road before. All that matters for our purposes is that higher tax refunds and increased consumer spending is the consensus on Wall Street. It’s expected that retail stocks will be big beneficiaries, with some analysts arguing that this is already priced-in.
It should be a similar story for Walt Disney World, which saw bookings surge–and discounts dry up–in 2021 and 2022 as Americans spent lavishly on travel. What’s difficult to untangle there is how much of that was attributable to revenge travel after people were stuck at home, and how much was due to stimulus spending.
My guess here is that the record tax refunds will be enough to give Walt Disney World a big boost. The average tax refund for this year’s filing season was $2,945 according to IRS data. For the upcoming 2026 filing season, analyst projections are all over the place–from an increase of $500 on the low end to an average refund of over $4,000 on the high end.
In parsing these numbers a bit further, it appears that guests generally regarded as Walt Disney World’s target demographic will be the biggest beneficiaries. In our view, that degree of increase–and that overall amount of return–is more than enough to get people thinking about spending on travel as opposed to just clothes and electronics. Especially for families who have taken a year or two off, or stuck closer to home as they felt the pressures of inflation, etc.
More Aggressive Discounts
These higher tax returns might be priced into retail stocks already, but it’s highly unlikely that they’re baked into Walt Disney World’s degree of discounting for 2026.
As we’ve covered at great lengths over the last few years, Disney is incredibly reactive–as opposed to proactive–with pricing, special offers, and pretty much everything. That’s precisely why last summer offered last-minute deals, instead of lower base rates, despite years of the summer slowdown.
Each year since the pent-up demand era, Walt Disney World has gotten savvier with its special offer strategy. They’ve been pulling from the 2019 playbook–and then some. This is precisely why occupancy increased last year; it wasn’t by accident. Our expectation is that they’ll continue to refine their approach and offer even more aggressive discounts to fill more resorts and utilize the excess park attendance bandwidth.
In fact, several discounts for next year are already available, and a couple of them are historically strong or outright unprecedented. And this is just the start of discounts–another round consisting of 3-4 special offers is likely to be released in early 2026!
Already-available special offers include the deeply-discounted Disney+ 3-Day, 3-Park WDW Ticket, the popular Save Up to $250 Per Night at Walt Disney World in Winter to Summer 2026 special offer and the straightforward Save Up to 25% Off WDW Resorts Room-Only Discount for January to Spring Break 2026. There’s also the $99 Per Night at Walt Disney World in Winter 2026.
The most impactful of these, from the perspective of crowds, is the 3-Day, 3-Park Walt Disney World Ticket Deal. This is a date-based ticket with start dates from January 12 to May 22, 2026. This one caught our attention because ticket deals help boost attendance, and contribute to crowds.
That’s not normally noticeable year over year, since very similar special offers are offered annually. However, the 3-Day, 3-Park Ticket Deal and $99/Night Room Discount are not normally offered during this timeframe. Winter has become one of the busier and higher-occupancy seasons, so it’s notable that Walt Disney World would get even more aggressive during this timeframe.
This bodes well for even earlier and bolder discounts from May through August. And while we’re on that note, personally, I do not believe that the summer trendline is irreversible. Offering bigger discounts and spreading greater awareness about lower crowds are powerful incentives, especially for price-sensitive middle class families. It’ll just take time.
As for winter, there will almost certainly be an even deeper discount on tickets for Florida residents that runs roughly the same dates and is eligible at all 4 parks. This one is worth watching in light of the 2026 Disneyland California Park Hopper Ticket Deal: $68 Per Day or Less!
That is the best deal we’ve seen during that timeframe at Disneyland in well over a decade (and that’s unadjusted for inflation), with a massive ‘sweetener’ offered via authorized third party ticket sellers (that is likely courtesy of Disney–otherwise, those sellers are taking massive loses).
If Walt Disney World offers a similar deal to Floridians, it could be a huge driver of attendance. (There are actually several ideas Walt Disney World could borrow from Disneyland–the PIN Code and Costco ticket deals were also incredibly savvy and would translate well to the WDW market.)
Conventional “wisdom” is that Walt Disney World is satisfied with higher revenue on lower volume. We do not believe this. Our view, which is fully supported by the aforementioned special offers, is that Walt Disney World wants to have it all–higher revenue, stronger guest spending, and increased attendance. We wrote about this at length a few years back in Disney Doesn’t Want Lower Crowds. That still mostly applies today.
It’s our belief that the above narrative has been forged around recent results–flat to negative attendance and record record–as opposed to a concerted effort by the company. That they’ve had some tough comparisons after lapping the 50th Anniversary and pent-up demand that made achieving higher crowds challenging. And it’s easier to pretend that was the plan all along to paint the results in a positive light.
To be sure, there are some limits on this. Guest satisfaction is certainly one. It’s unlikely we’ll see a return to 2019 levels of attendance until the 2030s. But Walt Disney World’s business model benefits from a certain crowd threshold, as that helps incentivize Lightning Lane sales. When there’s plenty of excess bandwidth in park capacity and resort bookings, they want to capture that. Hence the more aggressive discounts!
Ultimately, it’s our view that these last two points are what matters most and will override whatever valid points might exist as headwinds to higher attendance and crowds. More aggressive discounts colliding with higher tax refunds will be the outcome-determinative factors here. That’s enough to overcome everything else, especially when the other variables aren’t that influential in the first place. As the saying goes, “money talks.”
Our prediction is that 2026 will offer its own twist on 2021-2022. Back then, stimulus money plus pent-up demand were strong drivers of attendance for Walt Disney World. Enough to overcome price increases and a lack of discounts, plus a whole host of temporary & permanent cutbacks, and chorus of fan complaints. The Walt Disney World of 2026 is better positioned from a guest experience and satisfaction perspective, and the table is set for a repeat of the revenge travel run.
We will be closely monitoring both the 2026 Walt Disney World attendance and special offers situation, and will keep you updated on crowd levels and discounts. We should know a lot more about the latter in the next few days, and we’ll send you an alert if you sign up for our FREE Walt Disney World newsletter!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think is likely to happen with Walt Disney World attendance and resort occupancy in 2026? Are you expecting higher or lower crowd levels and wait times? Think the reasons for tourists to avoid WDW in 2026 are stronger? Or will bigger tax refunds and better discounts win out? Will you be avoiding or visiting Walt Disney World in 2026? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
It looks like the discounts end October 2026- do you think that could mean the middle of November will be less busy (14-20ish) because more people will book in the earlier months in order to access the discounts?
Personally I’m saving up $$ for the next recession. The deals I got in mid ’08 and then in ’09 were amazing- room discounts plus free dining- along with free fastpass and magical express. Back in the “mini” recession of 2001 (before 9/11) my wife and I used our extra “stimulus” rebate checks from Bush to pay for our hotel stay (8 nights at Coronado). I’m totally fine with waiting another year or 2 or judt going to Universal if prices never come down.
My prediction is relatively stable crowds due to increased discounts. I don’t think peak prices can be maintained but they have a lot of room for adjustment on pricing and perks.
When are people typically booking their WDW trip? As an international traveller we have planned our first family trip more than a year in advance, and booked around 11 months prior.
I would assume that domestic travel might be around 6 months before ? Considering everything required 60 days before 3 months seems like a minimum anyway for most guests.
I can say that I’m definitely taking a longer, more expensive trip this June due to the fact that I am getting a huge tax refund this year.
That sarcasm?
Not at all, I’m just agreeing with the article that these tax refunds will probably be a factor. The fact that I’m getting $4000 back this year definitely influenced the trip I’m taking.
Climate change is real, and will affect Disney as Florida becomes even more unbearable in the summer. I think that needs to start planning for even hotter summers, and how to make guests more comfortable, and that should start with more shade, and cooling fans. Walkways around all the parks, especially Epcot and Hollywood studios need to have more shade options. For example having shade awnings and pergolas creating an outer ring of shade at world showcase. Making them work while not restricting the fireworks views would be interesting. For the Hajj in Saudi Arabia, they have giant automated umbrellas to provide shade, those would work well as they could retract before the fireworks, when its typically cooler. Combining those with fans to make an artificial air flow could do wonders to improve the guest experience and restore numbers to the summer months.
For anyone skeptical about the hurricane explanation on the 1% WDW attendance drop, MCO just sent out its October 2025 activity report:
“Passenger traffic increased by 15.7% for the month, with domestic passenger traffic up 16.6% and international passenger traffic up 10.5%. These strong growth rates were bolstered by the impact of hurricane Milton which caused aircraft operations to cease for almost two days in October 2024.”
I would expect to see flat attendance development if I had to bet. Mostly because I think the company wants it that way. Maybe a slight increase as narrative. I buy the hurricane impact explaining the slight shortfall this year. They’ve been pretty successful managing crowds and patterns with different tools at their disposal. It’s obvious that by targeting wealthier clientele, growth can be achieved while keeping attendance consistent. (However shortsighted strategy this likely is.) Growing while sacrificing margin is merely a feel-good marketing story. And I also buy that different parts want to have their cake and eat it, too. But there has never been a shortage of cost-consciousness at Disney. One might argue that margin has been the dominant decision factor for quite some time, to not be front and center on any attendance (expanding?) discussions. Ultimately, for operations of Disney’s caliber, I think attendance (at any park) is deliberately planned and controlled to fit an an overall strategy, not an end-goal in itself.
I agree with you to the extent that Disney cares immensely about margins and is not pursuing an “attendance growth at all costs” strategy.
Where we (maybe?) differ is when it comes to the excess bandwidth (resorts & parks) and Disney’s adeptness at controlling its overall strategy. I think they’re far more reactive and less sophisticated. But on a positive note, I also think that they see the value in filling the hotels and parks, especially when done in a more targeted way.
A very interesting and well thought out article, thank you. As a Canadian, I wasn’t aware of the tax refund effect, that should be interesting. In my limited experience, you are right that some international travellers who are otherwise not visiting the States are still doing Disney. My extended family has postponed or, in two cases, cancelled trips to the States in the past year or so, but the one trip that’s still happening for one family is Disney World. I’m hopeful the rest of us will be able to get back there…… soon. In the meantime I enjoy your blog. Thanks!
Having just returned from Christmas crowds, I will say it was slightly less crowded than expected.
Christmas Day evening in DHS was nearly empty. Saturday evening (12/27) wasn’t terrible in Epcot.
Yes, I avoided doing much during day time after Christmas Eve, I’m sure daytime in Magic Kingdom was unbearable. But early in the week before Christmas Eve, the crowds and lines were not total insanity.
My point being that this week does not feel like the 10+/10 crowds park-wide. Not claiming the crowds are light, still a 9.5/10, just not the bursting at the seams from open to close.
A big part of the current travel paradigm and likely a big impact on 2026 is continued decrease in international tourism. The government is just starting to make it harder to visit the US. Unless the administration backs down, visitors will still be required to undergo searches of their social media, etc. This will greatly reduce tourism, more than has already occurred.
Pre-2025, what percentage of WDW visitors were international? I’ve seen estimates of 20%.
So at 50 million visitors to WDW per year, 10 million of which are international — If that comes down by 25% to 50% (very realistic downturn given the new entry requirements), basically that could be a reduction in visitors by 2 million to 5 million.
Throw in inflation and other economic concerns, I think the domestic market may have trouble filling the gap of the loss of international visitors.
The estimates I’ve seen are 18-22%, but that’s pre-COVID. I would expect those numbers to be lower in 2024 (so before all this).
If the proposed rules do come to fruition without revision, you’re 100% correct that’ll be a big blow to international travel. I’m still not sure how that’s even feasible, either from a practical or legal perspective, but I won’t pretend to understand the intricacies of the visa waiver program. It just strikes me as another one of those big bluster, little action types of things. Then again, I’ve thought that before about other policies that have since been enacted.
In looking at the wait times data, you’re right about the last week–wow. Although today (so far) is the busiest day since December 30, 2025. The first 10/10 day of the holiday season (there haven’t even been many 9/10 days!).
Thank you for sharing this recent experience, Adam. I’m recalling years ago Magic Kingdom was typically so packed during the Christmas season, the park would actually close after hitting the maximum guests allowed per fire code. I’ve heard many people complain they went to Disney World at Christmas and couldn’t even get into the park when they went to Magic Kingdom at around 10:30 AM.
Years ago, most people were simply unaware of how crowded Walt Disney World is during the Christmas season. It seems here in 2025, more people are aware of Christmas crowds and are therefore not visiting during the Christmas season. It’s not like WDW parks are now an uncrowded breeze during the Christmas season, but I can’t recall the last time I heard Magic Kingdom was closed because it was “full”.
A lot of this change can be directly attributable to park reservations, AP blockouts (albeit not as bad as at Disneyland), and prices.
Reservation availability is limited (both for APs and base tickets still requiring them) for the next few days; AP blockouts are more aggressive (and it’s hard to justify the highest-tier AP since the price difference is massive), and prices have skyrocketed for this 2-week stretch (and there are no ticket discounts).
This isn’t to say that there aren’t other factors at play, but I strongly suspect reverting to 2019 policies would result in 2019 crowds (give or take) around Christmas and NYE.
On international travel – I think a lag is a plausible explanation. As a UK’er, our annual dining deal is offered between April to July (I think) in the year before the trip – so anyone attending until now on that deal, which must be the bulk of UK guests given how big the deal is, booked before the last Presidential election and all of its fallout. There’s a huge difference between not booking and actively cancelling – and that’s a line that my wife and I personally sit on, as we don’t plan to return for the foreseeable future (back to Paris and Japan!).
I’m not saying a large percentage of UK’ers will now decide not to go, but if some or many do, it’s plausible if not likely that it’d only feed through in 2026. It may well be similar for other countries outside of North America as well.
Yeah, I think that’s a fair point.
It’s just interesting that other destinations have already felt this…but not Central Florida. Even with more lag, that suggests Central Florida is more insulated. That people are more likely to cancel trips to other destinations, but less so with those rite-of-passage family vacations.
I truly don’t know–I’ve been really surprised by the resilience of the MCO numbers. Certainly was not what I expected.
Selfishly, I hope summer holds to the same crowds we have experienced the past few years because that is the only time we can basically visit! Crowded, but manageable. What I hear from most friends that do not travel during summer is the dealbreaker is not the thought of crowds but the weather. Disney can’t control that (?!) and it just seems to be getting warmer and more humid earlier in the season year over year. We tolerate it and do what we can to mitigate, but for many of our SoCal friends, it is just unbearable, and they travel during more crowded times like Christmas, spring break, and the misc. winter holidays to avoid the oppressive heat.
Weather is definitely a big factor, perhaps the overriding one, but there’s also a huge ‘expectations vs. reality’ gap in summer crowds. According to Disney’s own survey data, guests go in expecting the worst and are pleasantly surprised–more so than any other time of year. To me, that suggests that ‘awareness’ is a big factor, and it’s just going to take time before word gets out and conventional wisdom about summer changes. It won’t be enough to make summer truly busy again (because there’s also greater awareness about that!), but it’ll move the needle.
Wouldn’t anticipate attendance “skyrocketing” Too much uncertainty in the economy. Also wondering when the time comes where Disney starts feeling the pinch of people having fewer kids and waiting longer to have them.
Epic universe: When universal offers fast passes, we’ll go. Until then, 3 hour waits for a 2 minute ride isn’t happening. No wait queue is that good either.
“Also wondering when the time comes where Disney starts feeling the pinch of people having fewer kids and waiting longer to have them.”
Precisely why Disney has been building more bars and otherwise targeting DINKs more aggressively. Not saying that can compensate for the aging population, but it’s a sensible strategy.